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ShareShack user name hidden until logged in February 04
From what I have read on the royal commission recommendations, the banks and broader financials will come out of this relatively unscathed compared to what the market was expecting. It will be worth keeping an eye on the commentary over the next week or so and in particular, CBA’s results and accompanying commentary on Wednesday. I reckon we might see some accumulation of banks over the remainder of this week now that the final report is out....Show more
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ShareShack user name hidden until logged in November 21
Boy am I glad I sold all of my bank shares prior to going ex-div a couple of weeks ago. Now to decide when to get back into the market? Definitely not back into the banks though....Show more
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ShareShack user name hidden until logged in November 12
Westpac recently announced a new capital notes offer. Has anyone here participated in previous capital notes offers from any of the big four banks? I'm interested in hearing your rationale for investing in capital notes rather than ordinary shares and vice versa....Show more
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ShareShack user name hidden until logged in November 11
Banks reporting season is over - this is Cuffelinks report card on how they fared...
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ShareShack user name hidden until logged in October 28
Interesting info on big banks...
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ShareShack user name hidden until logged in October 13
To put the recent pullback into perspective, here is a monthly chart of the XJO going back to 2003. You can see that we are still comfortably in an uptrend and that pullbacks of this magnitude are quite normal. You can also see that over the past 3 months the market has been trading at the top of the range which naturally leaves us exposed to, and expectant of a pullback from those levels at some point. As unnerving as it may be, we can still expect a potential pullback to the 5500 point area before we are actually back on trendline support. If this occurs, I would expect buyers to defend that level quite strongly and if it eventually folds then we will be headed for a bear market.
Fundamentally, I think the market offers some reasonable value at current levels. Banks for example are down ~ 30% from their 2015 highs and have significantly underperformed the market since that time even though cash earnings have remained relatively flat over the same period. Resources are holding up well and healthcare & tech stocks have sold off sharply >30% in just the past few months so being selective is the key in this current market as we haven’t seen the baby thrown out with the bath water just yet. SPI futures are currently pointing to a 51 point drop on Monday so there will still be plenty of opportunities if you missed out on last weeks action!
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ShareShack user name hidden until logged in June 23
All the major banks had a nice rally this week but ANZ in particular finished the week strongly on the back of a decision to increase their share buyback from $1.5B to $3B which is quite a significant announcement in the midst of all the turmoil coming out of the banking RC. When I look at the weekly chart for ANZ I see some positive signs emerging with a break above trendline resistance on high volume. I’d still like to see it back above $29 to remain bullish otherwise we could just see ANZ stuck in a range between $26 & $29 over the medium term. The other majors don’t look quite as encouraging on the charts just yet but I do think the worst is behind them for now until the next landmine is unearthed. I currently hold ANZ....Show more
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ShareShack user name hidden until logged in May 11
ANZ will trade XD on Monday morning and we have seen a very nice rally of around 5% since ANZ released its interim results 2 weeks ago. ANZ is currently sitting right under trend line resistance on the weekly chart and remains in a downtrend. It will be interesting to see if it retreats back below $27 in the coming weeks or if we see buying support continue to push it back up to retest this trend line resistance. I’ve been selling a few $28 May 24th CALL options over my ANZ holdings over the past 3 days to add another $0.20 of premium on top of the dividend to enhance the yield. If we see a decent sell off then I’ll be looking to add (or sell some PUTs) around that medium term support level between $26 & $26.50...Show more
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ShareShack user name hidden until logged in April 29
Interested in peoples views on the potential impact of the Royal Commission on the banks and the Australian economy in general.

Do you think it could lead to a sharpening of underwriting standards given the Commissions concerns with Responsible Lending and a reduction in credit availability?

I'm concerned that if this were to happen, it could cause the property market to fall?

I think that even at the higher dividend yields that all the banks are offering at their current prices, the downside risks as a result of the Royal Commission are higher than the upside potential.

Does anyone disagree- because 7% dividend yield on NAB and Westpac is pretty attractive and tempting.

I just think too risky right now...
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