AFTERPAY TOUCH GROUP LIMITED - ASX: APT

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ASX investor profile picture
ShareShack user name hidden until logged in March 02
Is Afterpay a long term buy and hold? Based on this article, I’m thinking maybe it is? The worldwide opportunity is immense.

https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/millennial-masterstroke-all-credit-to-afterpay-in-generation-grab-20190228-p510ws.html
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ShareShack user name hidden until logged in February 25

Anyone been investing in Appen, APT, Altium and Z1P. They’ve all been flying.
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ShareShack user name hidden until logged in November 29
“Afterpay allows me to live beyond my means” . That’s what resonated with me when I read this article. But is it a buy now after the regulator ruled credit card and loan rules don’t apply in the same way to them?

https://www.smh.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/time-to-pay-aussies-owe-more-than-900m-on-afterpay-20181128-p50iyf.html
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ShareShack user name hidden until logged in November 16
What do you think will happen to Afterpay?...Show more
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ShareShack user name hidden until logged in September 09
NAB trade interview with Afterpay Touch Group Head, David Hancock on 4 September 2018 discussing the payments company’s growth strategy, competitive threats and focus on responsible spending.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OQT4D0vszgQ
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ShareShack user name hidden until logged in September 07
How far will it retrace...Show more
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ShareShack user name hidden until logged in September 01
Balanced article outlining the risks of AfterPay. Almost everything else I see is about the global opportunity

https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/the-4bn-buy-now-pay-later-startup-built-on-a-legal-loophole-20180829-p500j4.html
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ShareShack user name hidden until logged in August 27
Commsec's summary of Afterpay Touch's FY 18 result on 22 August 18:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dQhj9hyb_9w... Show more
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ShareShack user name hidden until logged in August 22

Today was an incredible day for tech stocks. Wisetech Global and Altium in particular both up around 30% due to results that outperformed the markets already loft expectations. Carsales was also up over 10% off the back of a great result- but what was most noteworthy for me was that AfterPay continues to trend higher (up another 3.5%), as does Appen (up 12%) and they didn't release results. Xero also hit $50.

I realise these are all great companies with great global growth stories, but they trade on nose bleed valuation multiples and are clearly trading based on being the place to go- because they have such strong momentum behind them. Everyone is just piling into them whether they represent good value or not, because they probably feel that with the wind in their sails, these stocks are likely to continue drifting higher.

I'd be interested in anyones views on these stocks.

Who holds them and what their trading strategy is? Is it set and forget, or do you plan to take profit in the short to medium term.
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ShareShack user name hidden until logged in August 21
Terrific result today from Super Retail Group with solid growth across all divisions and outperforming broader retail. Key with thisbusiness is it’s CEO, who has a long track record of delivering.

AfterPay in the meanwhile just keeps going up and up and up. Worst thing is I remain on the sidelines watching after my wife made me sell it at $12, in response to the big loss I made on Blackham! All that proves was that two wrongs don’t make a right 😜

At the end of the day, some of the easiest trades are to simply follow the herd, and you can’t get more of a herd mentality behind a stock than AfterPay has right now . It’s in the lips of everyone in the street as easy money- and they’re all jumping in.

I guess the key is to get in, but to make sure one gets out before it corrects violently- which it may not do if the stock market keeps trending positively !
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ShareShack user name hidden until logged in August 16
The momentum on AfterPay at the moment is just incredible. Valued at an astronomical multiple of earnings, but its the stock everyone is talking about. Most hyped stock on the ASX. I shouldn't have sold back at $12.50 :-(...Show more
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ShareShack user name hidden until logged in July 22
Here's the list of volume spike trades of interest in today's scan (for trading day ending 20-Jul-2018):

APD, APT, AX1, CSR, EVS, FAR, HZN, HZR, LVT, NCZ, PHK, RCL, SW1, SXE, VRL

CSR and VRL look particularly interesting, with CSR gapping down to test a former support level, whilst VRL tests the upper boundary of a gap-down formed the previous week.

Personal disclosure - No direct positions thus far in these companies.
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ShareShack user name hidden until logged in July 20
AfterPay had a cracking day yesterday, up almost 25% off the back of a trading update which shows accelerating adoption of its service in Australasia and now the USA.

With a market cap of around $3 billion now and forecast ebitda of around $30 million, I calculate it is trading on a valuation of more than 100x earnings at bottom line profit after tax.

With everyone piling into it, it’s a momentum story as far as share trading goes, however the key question in my view is how this company would be impact by a recession.

At the end of the day, their service of buy now pay later is still consumer debt and their earnings are tied to the strength of consumer spending, which is in a Goldilocks moment right now, with unemployment at a record low, interest rates still very low and millennials preparedness to spend whatever they earn.

A valuation of 100x earnings essentially values AfterPay at 100 years of current earnings whilst we’re in a period of rising interest rates, debt at record highs and equity and property valuations at peak levels after 10 year bull market.

In my view, there is a high risk at some point- certainly within the next few years with interest rates rising- let alone the next 100 that AfterPay’s earnings are valued at, of an economic shock.

A recession would cause an immediate wind back of consumer spending- particularly with most people being highly indebted- which in my view would materially impact AfterPays business, notwithstanding it is an idea that appeals so strongly to millennials (why wouldn’t it as they don’t have anything saved, so buy now pay later really appeals. 😁)

That said, the momentum (the herd) at the moment is right behind AfterPay, so worth going along for the ride- but in my view, need to be very careful of the risks to the world economy, which in my view are high at moment.
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ShareShack user name hidden until logged in July 19
❤️❤️❤️...Show more
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ShareShack user name hidden until logged in July 17
https://www.clime.com.au/investing-report-archive/afterpay-zipmoney/...Show more
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ShareShack user name hidden until logged in July 10
UPDATE on the price action from first analyses. Price broke out and retraced back to the buying value area before going for a run up to price target and beyond. While I can't predicate 100% price does seems to respect the drawn support or resistance levels.

- This is my personal analysis on price action alone and not investment or financial advice
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ShareShack user name hidden until logged in July 09
APT - Update since last post in June. Price action has moved in line within original chart analysis.

Price target of $9.90 - $10 hit. Strong trend in place - may hit extended area of $10.62-$10.72 (shown in green). Previous comments below.

"Afterpay chart is looking very interesting with the break of $8 with a gap up and retest of the $8 area.
Good buying area in $7.22- 7.61 area marked green if price retraces back below $8.
However most likely the $8 will hold and price to go higher with around the $9.90 -$10 price target insight."

- This is my personal analysis on price action alone and not investment or financial advice.
...Show more
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ShareShack user name hidden until logged in July 04

Today I experienced the highs and lows of investing in the market with 3 stocks I hold.

Firstly, a great day on Great Boulder Resources, which was up 17% at one point off the back of no announcement. I think it’s going up on hype at the moment, but I’m not complaining 😀.

My luck it will come right back tomorrow...

Then Magellan Financial, down over 6% today also off the back of no announcement, which is unusual for this stock.

So, I checked out Motley Fool and discovered that Morgan Stanley released a report today issuing an underweight rating on the stock and a $27 share price.

Motley implies and I suspect is correct that the changing of the rating to what’s essentially a sell caused the stock to fall to $22.21.

Only thing that doesn’t make sense is that whilst they issued a sell on the stock, they did so with a price target of $27, which is more than 20% higher than the current price!?

And finally AfterPay, up strongly again today, finishing 5% up after being in the red at one point. Again not announcement driven, but broker driven.

Goldman Sachs issued a report at the end of last week with a buy rating and over $11 target price.

The Magellan and AfterPay movements both seem to show the influence the brokers can have on sentiment and the direction of the stock price...
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ShareShack user name hidden until logged in June 29
For those wondering why Afterpay has shot up 10% when there’s been no announcement by the company, it’s because Goldman Sachs has released a report with a buy rating and a target price of more than $11.00.

Just goes to show the power that brokers like this have over sentiment and the momentum of a share price.

I’m glad I bought some for my superfund at $8.40!!

Article from Motley Fool below is where I learned about Goldmans report. Well worth reading to understand what’s driving the price.

I also agree with their risk/ reward assessment of the stock.

These are my thoughts only. As always, do your own research or consult an investment advisor before making a decision on whether to buy or sell.

https://www.fool.com.au/2018/06/29/afterpay-touch-group-ltd-asxapt-share-price-tipped-to-hit-11-15/
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ShareShack user name hidden until logged in June 08
Afterpay chart is looking very interesting with the break of $8 with a gap up and retest of the $8 area.
Good buying area in $7.22- 7.61 area marked green if price retraces back below $8.
However most likely the $8 will hold and price to go higher with around the $9.90 -$10 price target insight.

- This is my personal analysis on price action alone and not investment or financial advice.
...Show more
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ShareShack user name hidden until logged in June 07
A lot of interest in Afterpay at the moment, whose share price has been flying.

The company's business model, growth opportunity and risks are very well explained in this video.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TKe0MmR7AZg
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ShareShack user name hidden until logged in June 07
How much consideration do you give tax time when deciding to execute buy and sell orders?

May - June is a great time to sell the losers, to offset any capital gains from the year, meaning shares moving in a downwards direction will likely continue to go down. Risky business if trying to pick the bottom.

Fund managers don't want to have to explain why they have held onto a poorly performing stock that is down, so are more likely to sell. Alternatively its a great time to buy up Market Darlings that are at 12 month highs - hard to find people selling this stock as all want to keep in their portfolio and not recognise a gain right before tax time.

Take APT for example - this week hit its highest price ever on news of USA roll out and outstanding revenue growth - trading at a PE of 150. Expecting the run to continue.
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ShareShack user name hidden until logged in May 15
What's everyones thoughts on Afterpay's announcement today? up 7%+ They have signed up Urban Outfitters for their US launch, along with some other aussie international businesses.
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ShareShack user name hidden until logged in March 03
https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/15-stocks-to-watch-after-reporting-season...Show more