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ShareShack user name hidden until logged in February 19
BHP result does not look too exciting to me. Underlying profit down 8% and flat production guidance for the remainder of the year due to production outages across several mines. I think the market was pricing in a bit more than what BHP has just delivered so I’d expect BHP to cop some selling pressure in the short term. Their shares are trading down around 1% in early London trade tonight. FMG & RIO will need to deliver some upside when they report if they are to maintain the significant share price gains that we have seen in recent weeks. I don’t currently hold any of these stocks....Show more
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ShareShack user name hidden until logged in December 02
I am very bullish on a lot of the mid and large cap mining stocks at present simply due to the good health of their balance sheets and low forward earnings multiples. RIO, FMG, S32, WHC, RRL and CRN are all trading on modest PE’s with modest to no net debt levels and generating very strong cashflows. The whole trade war debate is potentially negative for commodities but despite all that concern, prices have held up reasonable well. We are also in a significantly weaker AUD/USD environment which adds further value to these mining companies and the dividends they are likely to payout. Most of these companies are also diverting capital to share buybacks at present which is a smart move in my opinion and a better move than overcapitalising on acquisitions and development with so much political instability happening around the world right now....Show more
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ShareShack user name hidden until logged in November 10
FMG has seen a nice rally over the past 3 months as the iron ore price continues to strengthen. FMG initially sold off once price broke down out of that falling wedge but significant buyer support started to kick in near the $3.50 area as indicated by the volume bars on the chart. FMG has since rallied to break back through resistance at $4 and should continue higher over the short term. If FMG pulls back to test that $4 level in the coming week it would be a good area to look for an entry with stops below the most recent lows near $3.50. FMG has also initiated a $500M on-market buyback which is well timed imo to take advantage of weak share price which will be value accretive over the longer term. (Held)...Show more
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ShareShack user name hidden until logged in October 13
To put the recent pullback into perspective, here is a monthly chart of the XJO going back to 2003. You can see that we are still comfortably in an uptrend and that pullbacks of this magnitude are quite normal. You can also see that over the past 3 months the market has been trading at the top of the range which naturally leaves us exposed to, and expectant of a pullback from those levels at some point. As unnerving as it may be, we can still expect a potential pullback to the 5500 point area before we are actually back on trendline support. If this occurs, I would expect buyers to defend that level quite strongly and if it eventually folds then we will be headed for a bear market.
Fundamentally, I think the market offers some reasonable value at current levels. Banks for example are down ~ 30% from their 2015 highs and have significantly underperformed the market since that time even though cash earnings have remained relatively flat over the same period. Resources are holding up well and healthcare & tech stocks have sold off sharply >30% in just the past few months so being selective is the key in this current market as we haven’t seen the baby thrown out with the bath water just yet. SPI futures are currently pointing to a 51 point drop on Monday so there will still be plenty of opportunities if you missed out on last weeks action!
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ShareShack user name hidden until logged in September 13
FMG share price has been under sustained pressure since they announced full year earnings back in August. This coincided with a breakdown of the falling wedge at the $4 level which paves the way for further falls all the way down to test that $3 support zone over the medium term. $4 will now become resistance if/when FMG can get back to that level for a re-test. Even with reasonably positive & stable iron ore pricing in recent weeks, FMG has not been able to bounce so I think we will need to see a decent catalyst to change sentiment toward this stock if we are going to avoid testing that $3 support zone in the near future. I currently hold FMG....Show more
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ShareShack user name hidden until logged in September 01
FMG breaking down out of this falling wedge pattern on higher volume. The annual results were ok but second half was a bit disappointing with significant costs incurred in relation to the buyback of some higher yielding debt. FMG still generating plenty of free cashflow to fund dividends and growth capex but share price is always going to be at the mercy of iron ore pricing. Downside risk prevails in the short term. ...Show more
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ShareShack user name hidden until logged in August 04
Dalian IO futures were up over 5% last night Steve, their highest level since March this year. I’m not sure why IO seems to be running up when other metals appear to be in decline.

I can’t see a high conviction short setup on the longer term FMG chart. This last 18 months looks like a giant falling wedge pattern following the massive rally from early 2016 right through to early 2017. I also see declining volume right through the formation of this wedge. whenever it does breakout the move is likely to be big one way or the other give the length of time this pattern has been forming. Overall, IO pricing should dictate direction in the short term and I’m just waiting for a catalyst to tell me which way it wants to go over the longer term. I like the fundamentals of FMG at these prices too, particularly now the debt pile has been whittled down to a manageable level. The price discount for their lower grade ore is a concern although I look at this as a positive if/when steel prices do decline as China will be quick to switch back to lower grade ore if steel margins were to come under pressure. I currently hold FMG
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ShareShack user name hidden until logged in August 03
With the recent weakness in resource stocks, another stock appears to be turning downwards on a momentum basis - Fortescue Metals (FMG). The 30 week moving average is now turning downwards, and the share price has just traded and closed below last week's trading range, which was interestingly a shooting star formation.

Personal disclosure - short trade entry opened on 02-Aug-2018 at $4.27 per share, position sized based on former swing-high of $5.04 stop loss well above the 30 week moving average, which is currently $4.72. Reward risk ratio improves to approx 2.59 if stop moved to $4.76 just above the 30 week moving average (based on projected target of $3.00).
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ShareShack user name hidden until logged in May 14
FMG has had a nice run up lately following the likes of RIO & BHP which are making new 52 week highs today. One point of difference between these 3 is that FMG is still a fair way off its 52 week highs of more than $6 back in August last year. Iron ore pricing is obviously a key driver of price for FMG and the discount they receive on their lower grade product has been a concern, but, they remain highly profitable even at these lower prices. FMGs debt is also at a much more manageable and comfortable level these days and is adding to profitability now that they have repriced most of their remaining debt at much more attractive interest rates. I am a longer term holder of FMG shares and am still bullish on the fundamental drivers of their business. On the chart below I see FMG facing some possible headwinds at current levels just below $5. Trend line resistance is coming into play here and the recent price rise has come on the back of declining volume. If FMG can pop above the $5 mark and hold above that level for a few days we might see some increasing support come into the stock. In the absence of any short term news flow to move prices from here, I think the key is to watch for changes in volume to see if sellers start lining up on the first sign of a dip or if the buyers will step in and hold the price up here. I’m interested to hear others opinions on this one....Show more
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ShareShack user name hidden until logged in March 03 more