KOGAN.COM LTD - ASX: KGN

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ASX investor profile picture
ShareShack user name hidden until logged in August 29
Apart from Soecialty Fashion, two other shares I like at the moment are Eclipx and Kogan

Both up strongly today. I bought back into Eclipx after it fell 45% to $1.60 following its result announcement, which obviously disappointed the market.... greatly

I took a profit when it reached $2.00 following a bounce over the next few days and then got out. My luck, almost as soon as I did this an indicative offer was made to take over the business by its competitor SG Fleet, sending the share price above $2.50! Even though I missed out, I decided to get back in as while the company has rejected the offer, I suspect it’s not over. The synergies between SG Fleet and Eclipx would be immense and Eclipx has appointed UBS to advise them on defence.

Kogan is a share I posted about previously. Delivered a great result and the market sold them off because they believe the CEO and founder plans to continue offloading shares. Reality is the latest result painted a very promising outlook for the business and it appears to now be in the process of rerating...
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ShareShack user name hidden until logged in August 20
I have been interested in Kogan for a while now and made a couple of purchases through its website before the IPO. I considered acquiring a small stake at the time that the company listed and, in hindsight, it is clear that I missed out on a great opportunity.

The share price of Kogan (ASX:KGN) has fluctuated wildly this year. Whilst the company appears to have solid growth prospects and a large customer base it is trading at a very high P/E multiple. Kogan is a perfect example of how a sentiment driven growth stock can abruptly come off the boil as soon as any negative announcement is released.

I am a conservative investor with a preference for semi-mature businesses that are trading at low P/E multiples and
have moderate growth prospects. As a result I think I will stay out of Kogan for now and keep an eye on how the business evolves over the next few years.

I would be interested to hear your thoughts on managing the risks associated with growth stocks such as Kogan and Afterpay.
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ShareShack user name hidden until logged in August 17
Interested in people’s views on Kogan. Shares fell from $9.80 in mid June to $4.70 at the end of July off the back of a market update reporting that sales growth had been slowing. This happened after the CEO and CFO had tried to offload some of their shares.

However the shares have recovered since then and I thought they delivered an outstanding result today. Despite this, after at first rising well above $7.00, they finished the day 3.7% lower at $6.26.

The question therefore is whether they’re a buy at the current price?

In my mind, the pros are the fact they’ve become a household name, are expanding their product range and growing their customers at a significant rate.

The cons are the potential threat of Amazon’s entry into the Australian market and the anxiety I get from their CEO and CFO offloading shares.

However, if he is to be believed, I read in the AFR that the CEO thinks the business will benefit from Amazon. He thinks it will drive more people to shop online which will cause all ships to benefit from the rising tide. That sounds sensible.

On the issue of him selling his shares, he says he still owns a larger stake in the business than most listed company CEOs hold in theirs and it is common for other tech company CEOs- like Mark Zuckerberg to sell shares to invest in other interests.

I’m not usually a Motley Fool fan, but I thought this article was a great assessment of the result. Interested in others views and in particular the chart .

https://www.fool.com.au/2018/08/17/results-kogan-com-ltd-asxkgn-delivers-bumper-profit-growth/
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ShareShack user name hidden until logged in July 26
Here's the list of volume spike trades of interest in today's scan (for trading day ending 26-Jul-2018):

AHY, AIS, CVN, CXO, DHG, FXJ, GLL, KGN, KRL, MCA, NWS, PDN, RBL, RCR, RHP, SHJ, SW1, TBH, TER, VLW, WHA, ZEN

Personal disclosure - No direct positions thus far in these companies.
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ShareShack user name hidden until logged in July 25
Here's the list of volume spike trades of interest in today's scan (for trading day ending 25-Jul-2018):

AVH, CVN, DHR, ELS, GMD, GRB, IFM, KGN, LNU, MCA, MHJ, MYL, NNW, NUF, OGC, PAC, RBL, SE1, TER, VHT, WHA, YOJ

Personal disclosure - No direct positions thus far in these companies.
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ShareShack user name hidden until logged in June 13
Volume spike trades of interest for the day that came up in my scan today:

APA - APA Group
FWD - Fleetwood Corporation
GTY - Gateway Lifestyle Group
KGN - Kogan.Com Limited
RCR - RCR Tomlinson

Personal disclosure - No direct holdings thus far, but particularly interested in APA and GTY due to decent trading ranges presented by these charts today.
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ShareShack user name hidden until logged in June 06
Kogan's founders talking up the stock price and then attempting to offload $100 million worth of their shares, which is 10% of the company's capital!

This is a great example of why its important to be weary of management integrity, as well as their ability when buying shares in companies.

This is particularly so, when the shares being offloaded are in a company trading on an extremely high p/e multiple: Kogans is over 75x!.

The line from the following article captures this perfectly:

"There is obviously nothing wrong with a company founder deciding to diversify their investments, but it is another matter when they secretly attempt to offload stock - for the fourth time in less than a year - having just sold investors on the blue sky ahead".

https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/kogan-com-plunges-after-founder-attempts-another-big-share-sale-20180605-p4zjix.html
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