QANTAS AIRWAYS LIMITED - ASX: QAN

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ShareShack user name hidden until logged in November 24
Oil down more than 7% overnight to $50. Has fallen 30% in 7 weeks! Is this a sign that the world economy is slowing, or that supply is too high??

Whatever the reasons, it’s very helpful to airline stocks like Qantas and Air New Zealand. Hopefully my Qantas shares will go up!
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ShareShack user name hidden until logged in August 27
Commsec's summary of Qantas' FY 18 result on 22 August 18:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=91JVpZyTSO0
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ShareShack user name hidden until logged in August 23
Qantas is being smashed today following their result, which from this article sounded excellent. They have announced a $332 million share buy back, which means the directors think the stock is cheap. Will be interesting to read some research reports later on why the market didn’t like the result. Probably due to rising fuel costs and a slowing in the loyalty business. Only thing that I can see that the market wouldn’t have liked.

https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/qantas-underlying-profit-lifts-to-1-6-billion-a-record-high-20180822-p4zz42.html
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ShareShack user name hidden until logged in July 14
21 June2018 NABtrade interview with Qantas CEO Alan Joyce, discussing he company’s business strategy, outlook and how it is positioned for risks.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gycWgkciDGA
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ShareShack user name hidden until logged in June 12

I enjoyed today's trading. Was very interesting for 5 shares that I hold:

1. Nuheara (NUH): I was pleased to see the shares close up 4.55% to 11.5 cents following the completion of a $6 million capital raise on Thursday at 9.5 cents.

I felt the share price wasn't going to go anywhere until the company raised money and now that it has, I'm hoping it might rise.

Today was a good sign, but it may well be that the market wants a sales update before its willing to push the price higher.

On the face of things the company is executing well. It recently entered Japan, having previously entered the US and European markets and it now has funding.

2. Blackham Resources (BKL): This came out with an announcement today that drilling results have strongly supported the potential for the continuation of underground mining at its high grade Golden Age orebody.

In addition the article below in the West Australian talks about the company producing $1.5 million of gold every four days and looking to hire people to expand its operations.

However, the share price didn't budge- it stayed at 6.9 cents. This represents an $88 million market capitalisation, which is very small for a company that is producing gold at an annual rate of around 90,000oz per annum

I honestly don't know what I'm missing on this one. I left a message for the investor relations manager, but he didn't call me back. Will try again tomorrow.

https://thewest.com.au/news/wa/price-of-gold-spurs-wave-of-wa-fifo-jobs-in-remote-mining-town-of-wiluna-ng-b88863549z

3. Shriro Holdings (SHM). This share was smashed around a month ago. It fell from ~$1.40 to $1.00 due to a trading update that showed trading was challenging for its kitchen appliances business.

The $1.00 price represented a p/e multiple of ~6.0x and franked dividend yield of 11%.

Whilst I realise the business is in a competitive space, it's very rare to find companies trading at 6x p/e, producing cash that allows the payout of an 11% dividend and with a balance sheet that is almost debt free.

Since it has fallen it has gradually recovered, today reaching $1.27 and closing at $1.225.

What has been interesting about the recovery from $1.00 through to todays closing price has been the thin trading, with hardly any sellers on the screen and lots of buyers.

I'm a bit worried that someone with a smallish holding is pumping the stock (hence the small volumes driving the price up), but its done well for me.

4. Axesstoday (AXL): This share is a thinly traded stock that has fallen all the way back to a close of $2.09 today off small volumes. It had risen to over $2.40 a week or so ago.

I got in at $2.20, which represents a historic p/e multiple of around 20x

I'm thinking about buying more, because (as I've posted previously) they have a perfectly credentialed management team for what they do, are disrupting the incumbent competition and have been executing very well.

I also read that they presented at Shaw and Partners brokerage today and are held by Perennial Value in their micro cap fund. They were also spoken highly of in Livewire markets.

So the institutional sentiment around this stock is good and as long as they keep delivering, I reckon the share price will move higher in the long term.

5.Qantas (QAN): This closed at $6.57 today and seems to be moving up. I got in around a week ago at $6.40 off the back of Regal Funds Managements presentation at a conference.

I did a post on this a couple of weeks ago (you can find it by searching for Qantas in the search bar) which outlined a number of good reasons why Regal thought the stock was undervalued.

I like the fact Qantas is buying back their shares, as this means they believe they're cheap. In addition, with less shares on issue, it will also underwrite a stronger earnings per share growth profile.

All up, an interesting day...

Please note that the views I've expressed above are my personal opinion. Whilst I could be right in my assessment, I could also be entirely wrong.

You should always do your own research.

I'd also love anyone else thoughts, particularly if they disagree.
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ShareShack user name hidden until logged in May 26
Regal Funds Management portfolio manager names Qantas as the cheapest stock in the ASX 100 at the recent Future Generations fund managers conference.

He mentions the key attractions as being:

- their Domestic, Jetstar and Loyalty businesses, which he says have little competition,
- a p/e multiple of only 9x,
- 3 catalysts that should drive the price higher.

He reckons the valuation has been negatively impacted by the fact the market has under appreciated that the return to earnings growth of the domestic airline business has been due to structural changes, rather than a cyclical recovery.

This structural change is that Qantas is no longer in a capacity war with Virgin, which had negatively impacted price yield.

He reckons the market will realise this in August when Qantas releases its results, which will be a catalyst for share price growth. This is because it will force analysts to upgrade their earnings forecasts for the business.

He thinks another catalyst for share price appreciation is that Qantas will reinstate payment of a fully franked dividend, potentially as soon as August.

It's been 10 years since they have done this, which he thinks will make it attractive once more to Australian investors seeking franked dividends.

He reckons there's potential for the amount of the dividend to represent a 7% yield at the current share price, which would attract more Australians to the register causing the share price to rise.

Finally, he reckons Qantas is likely to be reinstated in the MSCI index in November.

He says last November, it was removed from this index because foreign ownership in Qantas had reached a cap of 50%, which was too high for inclusion.

This caused the share price to fall 30%.

He reckons with more Australians in the register, it will be reinstated in the MSCI and the price could therefore go up once its included again.

I've personally always found airline businesses difficult to understand, particularly now we're in an environment of rising oil prices.

However, Qantas hedges its fuel price and is much more than an airline business. Its loyalty program is one of its most profitable businesses.

It is also a great brand and leveraged to the growth in the rising Asian middle class who are travelling more to Australia.

Worth a good look, but as with all investment ideas, people should always do their own research and form their own views.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B2QpYdBmGfo
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ShareShack user name hidden until logged in March 16
I have held a stake in Air New Zealand for a few years now and would be interested to hear your views on the future direction of the oil (and therefore the jet fuel) price. The reduction in total hedged volume as a percentage of estimated consumption (70% for FY18H2 vs 81% for FY17H2) suggests to me that the company believes that the price will stabilise....Show more