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ASX investor profile picture
ShareShack user name hidden until logged in January 04
Retailers have taken a beating this week after Kathmandu KMD issued a profit downgrade on Thursday. Although they are starting to look quite cheap based on historical earnings yields, I’d be expecting the forecast earnings expectations for some of these companies to be wound back as we move into the half yearly reporting period. The technical picture reinforces this view with a number of the major retailers breaking below long term support in recent weeks with JBH leading by example this week as shown in the chart below. I view any short term bounce in retail stocks as an opportunity to sell....Show more
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ShareShack user name hidden until logged in August 21
Terrific result today from Super Retail Group with solid growth across all divisions and outperforming broader retail. Key with thisbusiness is it’s CEO, who has a long track record of delivering.

AfterPay in the meanwhile just keeps going up and up and up. Worst thing is I remain on the sidelines watching after my wife made me sell it at $12, in response to the big loss I made on Blackham! All that proves was that two wrongs don’t make a right 😜

At the end of the day, some of the easiest trades are to simply follow the herd, and you can’t get more of a herd mentality behind a stock than AfterPay has right now . It’s in the lips of everyone in the street as easy money- and they’re all jumping in.

I guess the key is to get in, but to make sure one gets out before it corrects violently- which it may not do if the stock market keeps trending positively !
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ShareShack user name hidden until logged in July 29
SUL has closed above that $9 resistance level on Friday. Results due out on 21st August. (Not held)...Show more
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ShareShack user name hidden until logged in July 02
Here's the list of volume spike trades of interest in today's scan (for trading day ending 29-Jun-2018):


Personal disclosure - No direct positions thus far in these companies. Happy New Financial Year!! ;)
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ShareShack user name hidden until logged in May 03
Quite a nice "pop" in Super Retail Group (SUL) has seen the share price leap through prior resistance of $7.43 to settle at today's close of $7.57 after reaching a high of $7.71. Interestingly, this still leaves quite a lot of room to fill a previous gap when the share price feel dramatically on 20-Feb-2018 from $8.08 per share. However, the share price must also overcome another resistance point at $7.89, which was formed by the swing low on 05-Dec-2017. Should the gap manage to get filled, it is most likely that the stock price will consolidate around this area before the next 'push' up towards the next area of congestion above between $8.50 and $9.00....Show more
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ShareShack user name hidden until logged in May 03
Super Retail Group shares are up 8% at the moment following a positive trading and strategy update.

This is a great example of a company that was smashed down off the back of uncertainty in the retail sector, but the take down had been overdone given the strong same store sales trends in the Super Cheap Auto and Rebel businesses.

It had been trading at a 52 week low of $6.55 in early April which represented an FY 18 estimated p/e multiple of less than 10x and an attractive dividend yield of 7%.

These metrics become more attractive in FY 19 as the earnings in that year will include a full year of earnings from the Macpac acquisition, which was only completed in early April and therefore only contributing $5m to FY 18 operating profit.

My view is this is a great value play at the current price, given the forecast earnings growth and dividend yield. Definitely was at $6.68. Maybe less so now, but probably still attractive.

I'm a holder, as I really rate the management team (thought their presentation at the Macquarie conference was excellent, including detailed strategy to drive growth).

I also like the fundamentals at current price, given dividend yield and earnings growth outlook, so am relieved by the bounce.

The Motley fool article below does a decent job in my view of explaining why the shares are up.

A UBS report in early April had a price target of $8.70.

It will be interesting to see what their price target is is updated to following this update:

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ShareShack user name hidden until logged in March 12
SUL is at a 12 month low - In fact it hasn't been this low in over 6 years - on the back of the concerns about the 'Amazon effect' & the recent acquisition of NZ outdoor company Macpac. The numbers are growing and the yield is good - some think that this might be the time to buy.... I hold SUL and have done for about 8-9 years. I am certainly watching with interest.
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